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Problems in the Polls: Reason for Optimism
For years I’ve been taught that figures don’t lie, but liars can figure. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to run a poll and publish the results. Just ask a question, record the answers, count, and publish the results. Simple!
Real Clear Politics chart showing a volatile and tight race between Obama and McCain
I’m sure that professional pollsters and statistical mathematicians are ready to write about all the formulas, calculations, etc. that go into a poll. But not all polls are the same and not all the results of a poll, even by a legitimate, trustworthy polling agency, can be accepted blindly.
According to Real Clear Politics, five tracking polls released October 7th show disparate results: Obama’s lead ranges from 1 to 11 points. Yes, a ten point spread. Yes, the polling agencies include some of the most trusted names, such as Gallup (Obama, +11), Rasmussen (Obama, +6), Zogby (Obama, +2), and others.
Why the large spread? Many factors are involved that can contribute to the results, including the people polled, whether they are likely or registered voters, the exact question(s) asked, the methodology of the poll, when the poll was done, etc. Along with this, we must remember that a poll is only a snapshot of the declared opinions of those polled at that moment in time. Therefore, when one sees where the polls are, especially in a close race, remember that those polls can see dramatic change very quickly.
More Reason for Optimism
Fox News and other media have latched on to the latest Gallup tracking poll (the only one of five that shows a double-digit spread). However, Gallup has shown much volatility in other tight races. In the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, Gallup reported these poll results:
| Date August 8 August 14 August 20 September 21 September 25 October 5 October 6 October 7 October 8 October 24 October 27 |
Leader & Amount Bush +2 Bush +16 Gore +1 Bush +10 Gore +3 Bush +11 Bush +1 Gore +7 Gore +11 Gore +1 Bush +13 |
Final result: Bush loses popular vote by 0.51%.
On October 7, 2008, Gallup shows Obama leading by 11, the same margin Gore was leading by at the same time in 2000. Just because Obama is leading, does not mean he will win. In fact, he can still be beaten if Republicans will work harder than ever before.
As hard as the liberals are working to try to steal the election though voter fraud, Republicans should work harder to bring people to the McCain camp. Hold meetings, call friends, join the campaign, donate funds.
As much money as Obama’s campaign has, Republicans should work harder to elect the one who doesn’t want to buy the White House, but puts country first.
As eloquent the rhetoric of Obama is, Republicans should work harder to show America that it’s not how well one speaks, but what one does that matters, and Obama’s record shows a man who will say anything to win and then break every promise ever made.
As far McCain may be in one poll or another, Republicans should work harder to show that the polls are wrong!
Republicans should work harder than they ever have to ensure that it is John McCain and Sarah Palin who are sworn into office in January.